2026 Mortgage Predictions: Rates, Prices & Housing Outlook

/ 33 minutes of reading /

2026 Mortgage Predictions: Rates, Prices & Housing Outlook

Tea & Mortgage Podcast

Every January on the Tea & Mortgage Podcast, we sit down with a cup of tea and chat with John Coleman, who makes his well-informed predictions for the year ahead.

Some land well. Some miss.


But they always spark good conversation.

In this episode, we’re looking ahead to 2026 and sharing John’s predictions on:

  • Home prices– where values could go and why it won’t be the same story everywhere
  • Mortgage rates– what borrowers should realistically expect, not just headlines
  • Buyer demand– who’s still active, who’s stepping back, and what that means
  • Housing supply & inventory– will we finally see more choice, or more of the same?
  • Banking speed (or lack of it)– approvals, delays, and whether anything actually improves
  • New banks & changes– who’s entering, who’s shifting, and what it means for borrowers

And, as always, we finish with a few non-mortgage predictions from John for the year ahead:

  • The World Cup
  • Gaelic football
  • Concerts & live events
  • Travel, and more.

Podcast Transcription

Kicking off 2026

0:00 – 1:08

Norm Schriever: Hey, everyone. Hope everyone’s doing great and enjoying their 2026. Kicking off the year right here on the 37th episode of the Tea & Mortgages Podcast with your favorite mortgage broker, John Coleman. What’s up, John?

John Coleman: How are you? How are you all? You’re going to have to stop putting out the numbers—they’re catching up to my age pretty quick! We’re just going to say this is our first episode of 2026. Even saying “2026” has a scary ring to it, but there is no denying time. I’m looking forward to you poking fun at me on this particular episode.

Norm Schriever: No, no, you always do great with these predictions. You always do great with them. But one thing you got right: Father Time is undefeated, as they say. 2026 came super fast, and so it’s great we get these predictions out in the world and we’ll see what happens.

1:08 – 2:27

Norm Schriever: All right. Now, first to recap: of course, at the end of 2025, we went through your predictions from earlier that year, from January 2025, and as usual, you did very well. Credit where credit is due.

John Coleman: There was probably a little covering myself! I don’t want to get into a “crystal ball” here, and it would be remiss of me for anyone listening… I think we need to put our disclaimer in now: take this with a pinch of salt to a point. You could have 10 economists in the room—and John Coleman—and you’d have 10, 11 different opinions. Ultimately, all we’re here to do is give our best estimate guess based on the information that is out there and let people make their own minds up.

Norm Schriever: There’s a big asterisk where this is notwithstanding World War III, aliens landing, or the US becoming a third-world country. All these different things—you never know.

John Coleman: The US is always the unknown and has been my bugbear for the last number of years.

2:27 – 3:07

Norm Schriever: Yeah, but hopefully 2026 is on to better, more stable, more normal times these days for everyone. We’ll jump into it.

John Coleman: I was betting on that! No, we’re going to be upbeat on this. I’ll talk phobia later.

Norm Schriever: We won’t worry about the AI Terminator robots quite yet. That’s 2027, I think.

John Coleman: I’m sure we’ll have a conversation on AI at some point later in the year.

3:07 – 4:08

Norm Schriever: Absolutely. If you want to kick it off, the first thing I have on my list is home prices—which is the big one that everyone is wondering about.

John Coleman: Well, I’ll give you a bit of history to frame this for people so that they can make their own predictions. Every year, there’s always a cohort of people saying prices are going to fall because they’re too high. Go back as far as COVID times: as soon as COVID hit the market, experts were saying prices were going to fall. I said they wouldn’t. They didn’t; they actually continued to go up. Interest rates then went up. People said, “Right, now’s the time prices are going to fall.” Again, they didn’t. Last year, Trump with his madness… “we’re going to have trade wars with every single country.” Again, that hasn’t had an impact on prices. Prices went up last year, and they’ve been going up at different levels since basically pre-COVID.

4:08 – 5:34

John Coleman: Fundamentally, price is determined between demand and supply. The key issue always has been—since the last big 10 years—that supply is nowhere near the level of demand. It goes back to 2008, when Lehman Brothers crashed and the whole banking industry almost basically shut down.

Norm Schriever: 2008, yeah.

John Coleman: From 2008 to 2013, there were very few properties being built, no mortgages being given, no business there. There’s almost half a generation of people who, through the normal cycle of life, never got themselves on the housing ladder. They are still part of the demand. Then, obviously, as each year goes by, you get the next set of people coming along who are looking. The supply isn’t able to match the new people, but on top of the new people, there are still people who normal life cycle wouldn’t have bought a house before now, but because they happen to be born at the wrong time… that market just wasn’t there. Supply never, ever has caught up with demand. That still is the case today.

5:34 – 7:09

John Coleman: Now, interest rates were going up; that did reduce the price rate range. Lastly, the rates started going down. My view on 2026 prices is twofold. In Dublin, I see the prices going up not as much as outside of Dublin, purely because they are already very high in Dublin. Affordability isn’t as great. I would still see an increase in Dublin, probably in the region of 3% to 4% over the year.

Taking the market in its totality, you’re then going to have different segments. House prices that might be €600,000 to €800,000 may have either a slightly higher increase, or probably more likely, a slightly lower increase. The house prices that will be in the lower range—€300,000 or less—may have a higher increase because they’re more affordable, but there are fewer of them. When you’re taking the Dublin market, you’re looking at about 3% to 4%. Outside of Dublin, I think the house price increases will be slightly higher, because of the affordability. They’re lower prices, so they can go more, and people would be able to afford them.

7:09 – 8:20

John Coleman: What’s happening is that people who might be living in Dublin are—to get better value—prepared to travel more to work, if they can get a hybrid job.

Norm Schriever: That reasonable train commute, or bus commute into work every day, that’s the range of where prices are going, yeah.

John Coleman: The house at the outer limit of the commuter belt… they will be the ones that are likely to go up by the most amounts. You’re probably looking at maybe 5% to 6% rather than 3% to 4%. That would be my take.

8:20 – 9:32

John Coleman: Now, to cover myself: that would be if everything remains the same—interest rates in particular. Demand is a function of confidence, and if there’s something seismic that would affect demand, that would obviously change what I’ve just said. COVID didn’t affect the demand or confidence. Interest rates going up, wars going on, Donald Trump… Donald Trump has not impacted the demand. But that’s not to say there isn’t something out there that none of us know about. Suddenly, there’s no jobs for anyone. Dramatic here, but I just don’t see that in the normal course of events in Ireland. The demand is still so great. The level of employment and the level of incomes are very strong.

9:32 – 10:16

John Coleman: I just don’t see the prices falling. I always tell people—I think it’s important to put this out there: I personally bought a property at the worst time, right just before the crash. Within six months of buying it, the bottom fell out of the market. Now, I got lucky; I didn’t have to sell. Because of that, if I was buying in the market now, this is the advice I give to people: you’re buying a home, you’re not buying an investment.

Is it near a school? Near your job? Near your family? Near your hobbies? Can you see yourself developing a social structure where you’re buying? That, for me, is the fundamental importance of buying a home, rather than, “Is this the best moment in time to buy a property?” because you can spend your life waiting for the “best moment.”

10:16 – 11:21

Norm Schriever: Yeah, it’s not a stock where you’re trying to buy today, sell tomorrow, and hope it goes up.

John Coleman: Absolutely. But if you’re buying a home and you take a long-term view on it—so you take a 10 to 15-year view—you take a lot of the risk out of the purchase. You want to buy it at the best possible point, but if your house is worth €50,000 more next year, or €50,000 less, it doesn’t make any difference because you’re not going anywhere.

11:21 – 12:03

John Coleman: Your real risk, whether you’re renting or buying, is always your income. How secure is your job? That ultimately is the most important decision. If you’re comfortable with your skill set and your employment, you’re never going to get the perfect moment unless you get lucky. If you are happy with your choice of home, well, that’s worth its price in gold.

Norm Schriever: You just wait it out. No matter where you start, you just basically go through one normal real estate cycle—which is maybe normally 10 or 12 years—and it’s all going to even out anyways. Then there’s also the conversation about the price you are paying for the money to buy the home—your interest rate. Those are two other factors that play off each other that people don’t talk about.

12:03 – 13:52

John Coleman: Great question. Interest rates basically fell throughout 2025. But all leading experts—majority opinion is—that we have pretty much hit the bottom of the interest rate cycle. There is no expectation for the rates to go up, and there’s no expectation for the rates to go down, as things stand.

Without boring everyone, the function of interest rates is to control inflation. If there is inflationary pressure, oil prices were skyrocketing—this is what happened after COVID. That’s why interest rates had to go up to kill the demand, to kill inflation, and basically, it’s done its job. That’s why the European Central Bank was prepared to lower the rates last year.

13:52 – 15:36

John Coleman: The view on inflation is very much “we’ve got it where we want it.” Pre-COVID rates were incredibly low. Then all this money hit and prices continued to spike. The European Central Bank’s view is they’ve done their job and they’ve got it.

But the ECB is one level; what the banks here do with those rates is a different kind of fish. You could argue the banks are almost… not a monopoly, what’s that word? There’s a cartel of sorts. Now, they probably won’t like me saying that, but from an interest rate point of view, when rates are coming down, they don’t tend to move as quickly, and a lot of people give out about that. But when the rates were going up, they didn’t do it either, by the way. One bank might do something just to gather market share, and then the other bank will respond.

15:36 – 16:05

Norm Schriever: Basically, your prediction, mortgage rates 2026: give us a number.

John Coleman: The European Central Bank rate will be plus or minus 0.25% from where it is currently at.

16:05 – 17:15

Norm Schriever: Here’s one key factor, inventory, especially in Dublin. What are you seeing with property inventory?

John Coleman: Well, I’m going to see a slight spike in the next three months. After that, I think it’s going to be the same issues. There is a new rental law: if landlords want to sell their house after March, they can’t sell it without vacancy for the next five years. If the landlord wants to sell, the person buying it has to continue to take the tenant. So a number of landlords will get out of the market before that. That might lead to a little more stock.

17:15 – 18:51

Norm Schriever: A little bump in the inventory, short-term.

John Coleman: I see it then going back to the status quo. I don’t think the bump isn’t going to be big enough to have an effect on prices. It might even encourage demand on the other side. Adding new leases after March, you are stuck with a 2% increase per year, but if a new lease is coming into place after March, you can basically set the rent. I still think the market has capped them—landlords were only able to increase their rent by 2% even though inflation was higher.

I see a small bump in supply, but not enough to make any difference. Supply and demand are still imbalanced, which still drives outward pressure on prices.

17:15 – 18:51

Norm Schriever: A little bump in the inventory, short-term.

John Coleman: I see it then going back to the status quo. I don’t think the bump isn’t going to be big enough to have an effect on prices. It might even encourage demand on the other side. Adding new leases after March, you are stuck with a 2% increase per year, but if a new lease is coming into place after March, you can basically set the rent. I still think the market has capped them—landlords were only able to increase their rent by 2% even though inflation was higher.

I see a small bump in supply, but not enough to make any difference. Supply and demand are still imbalanced, which still drives outward pressure on prices.

20:57 – 22:38

Norm Schriever: One of your pet peeves: the banks and their speed and service—or lack thereof—when it comes to mortgage approvals. This used to bother the heck out of you, but what do you predict?

John Coleman: There’s one bank that’s come into the market, NUA, and they have brought an incredibly refreshing technology approach. They are operating at the standard all banks should operate on. It’s easy for a new player to be agile and nimble, but when you’re talking about the major “pillar” banks—AIB, Bank of Ireland, and Permanent TSB—they’re like oil tankers. Trying to move an oil tanker is not easy. Big banks are huge oil tankers.

22:38 – 25:16

John Coleman: I know there is work being done in the background to try to make things more efficient. I just don’t see it happening, certainly not predicting that at the start of 2027 I’ll be saying all banks’ service is now literally where it should be.

We’re constantly trying to take the frustration out of it, but we’re still in a system whereby it can take one of the main banks two to three weeks to make a decision, where this new bank sometimes has a decision made within a day. Huge variance.

Norm Schriever: Again, our role as brokers—we can’t pass all the blame on to the banks. Brokers have a role. 50% of the banks’ business comes via brokers. We have a role to make sure we’re presenting in the most efficient way possible—playing by their rules, knowing their systems inside out, so we can create the least amount of friction. If the process from our end is frictionless, it does help. Team effort.

25:17 – 26:17

Norm Schriever: Yeah, and maybe NUA will nudge the others in the right direction.

John Coleman: I wouldn’t even say they are being nudged; they are moving. There’s just so much testing. I’m going to give them a bit of slack on that. You keep hearing banks say, “Oh, we’ll have this by Quarter One of 2025.” We are now Quarter One of 2026, and we still don’t have it.

Norm Schriever: Buyer demand. We talked about sellers, inventory, rates, prices… but basically, for prediction for buyer demand.

John Coleman: I don’t see that going anywhere. We’re one week into 2026, and in our first week, we sent out 18 mortgage proposals, or “roadmaps,” as we call them. That was 18 people coming to us in one week. I certainly don’t see demand going anywhere, line with obviously, people don’t want to pay rent.

28:10 – 29:50

Norm Schriever: The international aspect?

John Coleman: We have a strong non-Irish core of our business. A lot of people from Brazil, India, Poland, South Africa… who come to Ireland to live like the way of life and are doing well. They make the decision: “Okay, this is where we see ourselves growing our family.” Demand isn’t going anywhere. For the next 12 to 24 months, I personally cannot see the house prices falling. No world war, no out-of-this-world unforeseen event.

32:51 – 34:04

John Coleman: Permanent TSB is on the block, and an Austrian bank is looking to potentially buy them. I think we discussed this on a previous episode. For 2026, my prediction was—based on what all leading experts are saying—the interest rate cycle has probably fallen throughout 2025, and we are now at the bottom of the cycle. I am not passing that as my opinion; I’m passing that as a consensus.

John Coleman: Rates came down last year—three reductions. There is a general view that they may well have bottomed out. But you have to be careful with interest rates coming down, because it can spike demand, pushing up prices further. Supply, however, is stationary. Simple economics. If demand goes up and supply is stationary, well, there’s only one way the price can go. I always covered myself by saying, “Unless something seismic changes that,” and standard COVID-level events didn’t affect demand.

Norm Schriever: That gives them pause.

John Coleman: Every year that goes by, we’re getting closer to that tipping point. I’m going to give it some thought, but I don’t think it’s likely to happen this year. At some point, there must be a price where people say, “No.“

34:04 – 36:23

Norm Schriever: Correct. A correctness you need to address. This next part is personal predictions. I asked you about trends in baby room paint colors for 2025, and you declined to answer.

John Coleman: I don’t remember declining it! I didn’t get that right… Blue.

Norm Schriever: Dating and marriage for John Coleman? “Have you been talking to my mom?”

John Coleman: Have we been, well, let’s leave that one at rest, Norm!

Norm Schriever: But speaking of design, two fake plants in your backdrop, not just one.

John Coleman: I don’t have them! No. But I have two paintings—real paintings—so you have encouraged me. A draw. A draw. That’s a movement in the right direction. Okay. Okay.

36:23 – 40:06
Heart vs. Logic, Part 1: Djokovic, Murray, and Wimbledon

Norm Schriever: Here’s one from the heart—more than logical—but you predicted Novak Djokovic wins Wimbledon with Andy Murray as his coach.

John Coleman: I’m gutted! Because Andy Murray had actually stopped playing! Novak was beaten in the semi-final. Yeah, that didn’t happen, much to my disappointment. Did I really say that?! Yeah, okay.

Norm Schriever: That was definitely from your heart.

Heart vs. Logic, Part 2: Gaelic Football, Kerry, and “Donegal”

John Coleman: My go-to: Blue. Okay, Donegal. Okay, okay. Donegal. My nemesis county, Kerry.

Norm Schriever: And Kerry won the All-Ireland.

John Coleman: It’s fairness this year, fairness this year. Kerry used to win the All-Ireland, and I’d come home as a kid crying—psychological wounds are pretty deep! Growing up, it wouldn’t have been “Will Dublin win?” it would be “Who can stop Kerry?” And Kerry won.

Heart vs. Logic, Part 3: Liverpool Loyalty (Rooting to Lose)

Norm Schriever: Write it down this year, I’m not letting you slip. Last one, I’ll pronounce this for you: Liverpool.

John Coleman: Liverpool would win! I got that right! Though I hope I was wrong! I brought my best friend over to Liverpool. Thankfully, I won’t be making that prediction for them this year! I’m probably losing anyone that is a Liverpool fan.

Norm Schriever: I secretly root for anyone against my nemesis team, like the New York Yankees in baseball or the Lakers in basketball. So I’m a hater!

John Coleman: Yeah. I always secretly hope they lose!

40:06 – 42:43

Norm Schriever: Predictions for 2026. Will 2026 be the year you and I finally meet in person?

John Coleman: Yes. Yes. Yes. We let ourselves down there, my friend.

Norm Schriever: I’m falling on the sword.

John Coleman: I even invited you over here as well! So I’m putting that one on you, my friend.

Norm Schriever: Yeah. Overall, 9-0.

John Coleman: Yeah. Got two wrong—sporting predictions—and the other one, a draw, neither a win or loss.

Norm Schriever: Home prices going to go down? Cross over into prediction for 2026. That doesn’t mean home prices are going down.

John Coleman: That means they will stop going up as much. Double-edged sword.

42:44 – End

Norm Schriever: 2026 is on to better, more stable times.

John Coleman: Start making some notes on competition, education, guide people, selfless. Pushed me outside my comfort zone. It scares me now.

Norm Schriever: Mutual admiration society! Okay. Bye. Bye.

🎙 Have a wonderful 2026 – and we’ll circle back in December to see how many of these predictions were on the mark!

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