Reviewing John Coleman’s 2025 Predictions
Tea & Mortgage Podcast
Each year in January, John Coleman makes predictions for the coming year in regards to mortgages, home buying, real estate, and the economy in Ireland.
But he also makes a few prognostications about sports, cultural trends, world events, and more.
Then, in December, we take a look back and tally up how his predictions rang true (or fell flat) – with a bit of good-humoured teasing when he’s wrong.
So, how did John’s predictions do for 2025?
Watch and see if John was right or wrong about property prices, mortgage rates, supply and demand, Wimbledon, Gaelic football, and more for 2025!
(And look forward to John’s predictions for 2026 coming for our next episode in January!)
Podcast Transcription
Three Years of 'Tea & Mortgages
0:00 – 1:03
Norm Schriever: All right, so we have the Tea & Mortgages podcast, number 36, with John Coleman. This is a special episode. Of course, we’re looking at the predictions John made for 2025—seeing what was right, what was wrong, what went crazy in the world—and then next month, we’ll actually do the predictions for 2026. John, how are you today?
John Coleman: Well, fantastic. I know you’re going to get great joy out of trying to make me squirm when I think I might have made a prediction at the start of the year that proved to be incorrect. Did you say Episode 36, yeah? We’re on number 36? Isn’t that incredible? Three full years you’ve dragged me in front of the screen, despite my reticence! Wow, you have a lot to answer for, my friend.
Reticence, Fun, and Three Years of Data
1:03 – 2:20
Norm Schriever: I think you genuinely enjoy it! It’s fun for us to have these chats. You and I have fun.
John Coleman: I’m trying to block out the fact that we’re actually being recorded and just have a conversation. Exactly. But I feel you’re going to take joy in making me squirm. I don’t even remember what we talked about—I’m sure there are property prices, interest rates, all that good stuff. Ready to be embarrassed. Hopefully, I think you said this to me last time: if it’s right, it’s you and me, and if it’s wrong, it’s completely on me. Is that how it works?
Norm Schriever: Exactly! It’s a team effort if you got it right. But you actually did very well last year, and you did very well this year too. Interesting enough, we started these recaps of the predictions in 2023, so we are going into three full years of this and the podcast. That 2023 feels like a hundred years ago, doesn’t it?
John Coleman: Absolutely. Go with me.
Prediction Check: The Property Price Spike
2:20 – 4:15
Norm Schriever: All right, so here we go with the predictions, starting with the big mortgage and real estate ones. Your big prediction for 2025 was property prices. You said, and I quote, “I could only see them going one way: up.”
John Coleman: I don’t think I was far wrong with that prediction. They didn’t go crazy up. At the beginning of the year, there was all this uncertainty around tariff threats from our friend Donald Trump—and I say that sarcastically. If you remember, I would have been saying throughout the year, “Listen, COVID didn’t bring prices down, interest rates didn’t bring prices down… Was Donald Trump going to be the guy who suddenly…?” Even in the height of the uncertainty around the tariff wars, prices still kept going up.
We’ll talk about my prediction for next year in January—watch this space, shall we say. Now, I will add that I don’t want to say prices are going to go up with a lot of confidence, because that obviously scares people. But people need to be educated and understand what’s happening in the market. Given the supply and demand issues, I still couldn’t see prices falling. That really hasn’t changed at all. So I probably would have covered myself a little by saying, “Unless something really weird and wonderful happens in the world.” Even the Donald Trump tariff show could have been what was described as a weird and wonderful thing.
The Immunity of Irish Property: Trump, Conflicts, and Certainty
4:15 – 5:12
Norm Schriever: Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Hamas… all these things.
John Coleman: They’ve been ongoing for the last number of years, sadly. But the tariff war, if you remember what it was called, was very much a seismic threat to the way business is done in the world. Does that have a knock-on effect on confidence? The answer was no. The Irish property market seems immune to seismic changes to the point where the demand doesn’t seem to be going anywhere. I was pretty confident when I was making that prediction that I’d be correct.
Accuracy Check: The 5% to 10% Range
5:12 – 6:30
Norm Schriever: Your exact words: you were talking about supply being the biggest issue, and supply is still the greatest challenge. Basically, you said in 2025, you saw prices going up 5% to 10%, which I think probably were within that range.
John Coleman: They are absolutely within that range. We’ll have exact figures when we predict 2026. Stats to date show that each area and price range has different characteristics, but on an overall view, that price range has certainly been seen to be pretty close on the money. I wouldn’t take that as an exact figure, because if you’re buying a house between €500,000 and €700,000, it may behave differently versus €300,000 to €450,000. It behaves differently across the board, but we’ll tease all that out.
Norm Schriever: You also did say you don’t see prices falling in any of the segments or price points. I don’t think that’s accurate, well, actually… that is accurate.
John Coleman: I wouldn’t want to take any massive credit for being able to say that, because I think everyone would have said similar things.
Prediction Check: Interest Rates and the Bottoming Cycle
6:30 – 7:41
Norm Schriever: Well, speaking of getting it right: interest rates. Your prediction for 2025 was absolutely that interest rates will fall, by half to three-quarters percent in 2025. So how do you do on that one?
John Coleman: Pretty on the money, in truth. Rates have come down in Europe. Some of the banks haven’t filtered them all through. There’s a time lag between when the European Central Bank reduced its rates and when the banks here follow suit. One bank did come out now recently and introduced a product that keeps in line with what’s happening in the European Central Bank. But rates did come down.
We’re at the time where I feel we’re at the bottom of the cycle, with maybe one more reduction to come. There is a feeling that we may well have bottomed out. So they did fall by about three-quarters of a percent.
Be Careful What You Wish For: Buying Power vs. Demand
7:41 – 9:14
Norm Schriever: Here is another interesting side note: with interest rates falling, be careful what you wish for. You said that it may increase buying power and demand, but not necessarily supply, so it may just push up costs even further.
John Coleman: And that can be seen by what we just discussed—prices did go up, and there certainly were no breaks on the price increase. There was nothing to stop it: banks were lending people more money, interest rates were coming down, and suddenly people were saying… it just creates more demand. I’m going back to simple economics here. Supply is something that can’t really have the switch turned on to create more houses overnight. If the demand has gone up and the supply is stationary, well, there’s only one way the price can go.
Norm Schriever: Absolutely. And you’re so far on the money with every prediction.
John Coleman: I’m waiting for where it goes wrong, or where it’s going to go wrong!
The Tipping Point: €600,000 Homes or Normality?
9:14 – 10:07
Norm Schriever: Believe me, these are the easy ones! I’m going to get into the fun personal predictions soon. But you did mention that you think there will be a tipping point at some point, not in 2025, but where it’s just not worth it—where people see these house prices and demand pulls back. But you mentioned you don’t think it will be for one to two years.
John Coleman: That tipping point certainly hasn’t hit now. Do I think it will happen next year? I would say no, is the honest answer. But each year that goes by, we’re getting closer to that point where the amount of money people are having to spend to buy a house, suddenly, at some point, there’s got to be a point where people go, “Sorry. I don’t want to be spending €600,000 on a house that’s three beds and I’m two hours away from my parents.” I’m exaggerating to make a point, but there will be a tipping point where suddenly people just go, “No, this doesn’t make sense.”
Personal Predictions: Plants, Baby Paint, and Avoiding Marriage
0:07 – 11:28
Norm Schriever: Yes, that gives them pause, and there’s a slight pullback in the correction in the market, which is needed all the way around. So, here are now the fun personal predictions. Interesting enough, I asked you about your prediction for 2025 for trends in baby room paint colors, and you declined. So, that was a little rude.
John Coleman: I don’t remember declining that! Automatically, my go-to when it comes to color, as you can see, is blue. So, I will just say blue.
Norm Schriever: Also, love, dating, and marriage for John Coleman in 2025. You definitely declined to answer that particular question. You said, quote, “Have you been talking to my mom?”
John Coleman: Okay, we’ll leave that one at rest, Norm. Leave that one down.
Norm Schriever: But speaking of design, 2025, you said, would be the year you have not one but two fake plants in your backdrop instead of just one. So, were you correct? I’m not seeing them.
John Coleman: No, I wasn’t. But I have two paintings that weren’t there. Well, you’ve encouraged me. I just didn’t get the plants, but I got two real paintings. We’ll call that a draw. It’s not a correct or incorrect prediction—it’s a draw. I think that’s more of a movement in the right direction, Norm.
Sporting Heart vs. Logical Sport Predictions (Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic)
11:28 – 12:13
Norm Schriever: Here’s one in all seriousness. You predicted—and you said from the heart more than logical—but you predicted Novak Djokovic wins Wimbledon with Andy Murray as his coach. I bet you didn’t remember that prediction, huh?
John Coleman: I didn’t remember that prediction. Oh, I’m gutted, because he wasn’t his coach. Andy Murray had actually stopped playing at the time. Novak was beaten in the semifinal, so yeah, that didn’t happen, much to my disappointment. Did I really say that? Okay.
Norm Schriever: Yeah, but that was because you’re such a Novak fan.
John Coleman: Yeah, that was definitely from my heart. Yeah, we won’t be making that prediction for next year. I think we’ll have the World Cup to predict come January.
Gaelic Football Heartache: Kerry vs. Donegal
12:13 – 13:16
Norm Schriever: And so, for Gaelic football, and I know I’m going to say this wrong, but Donegal?
John Coleman: Okay, that’s… again, they were beaten in the final by my nemesis county, Kerry. Growing up, Kerry used to win the All-Ireland, and I’d come home as a kid crying—the psychological wounds are pretty deep! As a Dubliner, it wouldn’t have been “Will Dublin win the All-Ireland?” It would have been “Who can stop Kerry?” So, Kerry won the All-Ireland. Fairness this year? Well, I’m not sure I could see them losing it next year either. Gosh, I can’t remember these predictions! When I make my prediction, I’m going to write it down so that I can remember what I’ve said.
Liverpool Hate and Anfield Allegiances
13:16 – 14:41
Norm Schriever: I’m remembering them! I’m not letting you slip with any of these. But the last one was Liverpool would win the title.
John Coleman: I got that right!
Norm Schriever: You got it right, but you said you hope you’re wrong, but you’re actually right.
John Coleman: I brought my best friend over to Liverpool to watch a match. He’s a big Liverpool fan. We saw one of the matches during the year. But thankfully, I won’t be making the same prediction for them this year. So, I’m probably losing anyone that is a Liverpool fan and wants to do business with JC Mortgages—going to probably go, “Right, I’m not dealing with him anymore.”
Norm Schriever: I think people respect that. People respect if you’re a true fan more than if you agree with them just to do business. Let the Liverpool hate commence!
John Coleman: It’s funny, I’ve got to add this, because I’ve been to Anfield probably about 12 or 13 times—more than any other stadium outside Dublin. It’s an amazing place to go. I always secretly hope they lose, but I’m going to keep that to myself.
Prediction Fail: The Meeting That Didn't Happen
14:41 – 16:21
Norm Schriever: It’s like me with the New York Yankees in baseball, or the Lakers in basketball. I’ll root for anyone but them to win. So, I’m a hater! But yeah, the final prediction we made for 2025: Will 2025 be the year you and I finally meet in person? And you said yes.
John Coleman: No, yeah, but we didn’t. We let ourselves down there, my friend. I did tell you I’d come over.
Norm Schriever: But it’s my fault. I’ll fall on the sword on this one.
John Coleman: Yeah, I would hope so, because I even invited you over here as well. So, yeah, I’m putting that one on you, my friend.
Norm Schriever: We’re closer, but we still haven’t made it out yet. We’ll work on that one for the 2026 prediction.
John Coleman: On you! We can’t have the same conversation this time next year and not have personally met, you know?
Recap: 9-0 on Mortgages, 2-2 on Personal
16:21 – 17:55
Norm Schriever: So if I add these all up… other than Novak Djokovic and Donegal… I’d say you’re about 9-0 on the mortgage, real estate, property, and economic predictions, which is incredible, and you were 2-2 on the personal predictions. So overall, that’s pretty darn good.
John Coleman: Yeah, but I did get two wrong—the sporting prediction I got, and I don’t have plants. There always has to be room for improvement. Will we be as successful next year? But ultimately, this is obviously you and I having a bit of fun.
The format is about educating people, because in any world, you’re always going to hear doomsday people saying, “Oh, the market is going to crash.” I don’t ever want to say I have a crystal ball here, but I don’t see it happening anytime soon. We’ll go into that in more detail in January, but it’s supply and demand. Supply isn’t changing, so what’s affecting demand? Only when that tipping point happens—where suddenly people just don’t see the value for money anymore—only then are you likely going to have a significant reduction in demand. I think there’s always people waiting in the wings.
Price vs. Acceleration (Be Careful What You Wish For)
17:56 – 18:43
Norm Schriever: John, that doesn’t mean home prices are going to go down. That means maybe they will stop going up as much.
John Coleman: That’s what I would always have said when interest rates went up after COVID, went up by three or 4%: prices didn’t go down. Prices went up by just not as much. This is why when we’re talking about interest rates coming down, “be careful what you wish for,” because when interest rates are coming down, it spikes demand on the other hand. It’s a double-edged sword, really, in truth.
Education, Mutual Admiration, and 2026 predictions
18:43 – 20:07
Norm Schriever: We’re looking forward to your predictions for 2026, so start making some notes. Best thing to do is just wish everyone a Happy Christmas from us.
John Coleman: Thanks, everyone, for listening throughout the year. Hopefully, we continue to bring our version of cheer and education in 2026. John, honestly, thank you for all you do. All day long, you help people, educate, and guide people, and you do it very selflessly.
Norm Schriever: I don’t see it as a business relationship at all. You pushed me outside my comfort zone. Sorry, we’re becoming a mutual admiration society going on here! It scares me now, by the way… have a great Christmas.
John Coleman: Bye for now. All right, take care.
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