Help to Buy Warning and Should you buy now
Expert Advice for Irish Homeowners and Buyers
August 2026 Mortgage & Property Market Update
Overview: John talks through Revenue’s Help to Buy clawbacks, why house prices are still climbing but slower, and where mortgage lending and ECB rates are headed.
Revenue is actively clawing back Help to Buy payments from applicants who owned property abroad. Irish house price growth is cooling from its earlier pace. And mortgage lending is still climbing, despite the ECB holding rates in July. In this month’s update, John Coleman breaks down what each of these developments means if you’re buying, remortgaging, or planning ahead for 2027.
Quick note before you read on: the rate and price outlooks below are John’s professional view, based on current ECB guidance and market conditions, not a guarantee. Mortgage rates and property values can move in either direction.
Key Takeaways
| Help to Buy clawbacks are happening now. Revenue is pursuing applicants who owned a home abroad and weren't genuine first-time buyers, recovering the relief plus interest. | |
| House price growth is easing, not reversing. Prices are up 7.3% year-on-year outside Dublin and 4.7% in Dublin (CSO Residential Property Price Index), with a forecast of roughly 4% growth for the full year. | |
| Mortgage lending is still rising. 21,232 mortgages worth €6.8 billion were drawn down in H1 2026 (BPFI Mortgage Drawdowns Report), up 5% in volume and 9.6% in value year-on-year, with June approvals up 15%. | |
| Remortgaging is picking up as borrowers who fixed rates around 2023 come to the end of their term and find real savings available. | |
| The ECB is expected to hike again, this is John's forecast, not confirmed policy by 0.25% later in 2026 and once more in the second half of 2027. |
Mortgage & Property Market Update - August 2026
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Irish Mortgage Market at a Glance — August 2026
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| House price growth (outside Dublin) | 7.3% year-on-year |
| House price growth (Dublin) | 4.7% year-on-year |
| Full-year price growth forecast | ~4% (John's forecast) |
| Mortgages drawn down, H1 2026 | 21,232 worth €6.8 billion |
| Growth in lending volume / value | +5% volume, +9.6% value year-over-year |
| Mortgage approvals, June 2026 | +15% |
| Average residential property price | €426,000 (8 x average earnings of €53,000) |
| ECB rate outlook | July; +0.25% expected later in 2026 |
| ECB rate outlook (John's forecast) | +0.25% expected H2 2027 |
Figures current as of August 2026.
Are You at Risk of a Help to Buy Clawback?
Revenue is pursuing Help to Buy applicants who owned a property abroad and weren’t genuine first-time buyers and it’s recovering the relief with interest once it finds the discrepancy.
Owning a home outside Ireland disqualifies a buyer from first-time buyer status, even if they’ve never owned property in Ireland itself. Revenue has been contacting applicants directly, asking them to prove they qualified as first-time buyers when they claimed the relief. Where someone claimed Help to Buy while owning property abroad, Revenue is now recovering the money, with interest added on top, which means the real cost of a mistaken claim runs well beyond just handing back the original relief.
None of John’s own clients have been caught up in this so far. But the issue has come up repeatedly in the news over recent weeks, which is why it’s worth flagging clearly here: this isn’t a grey area Revenue is willing to overlook.
Key tips
- If you owned any property abroad, even briefly, don’t assume it’s irrelevant to your Help to Buy eligibility, check before you apply.
- Revenue’s enforcement here includes interest on top of the repayment, so the cost of a mistaken claim is higher than just returning the relief.
- If you’re unsure whether previous property ownership affects your first-time buyer status, get advice before submitting a Help to Buy application, not after.
- If you’re applying for Help to Buy for the first time, it’s worth sorting your Mortgage Protection at the same stage, JC Mortgages arranges the HTB application, the mortgage and the required cover together, so nothing gets left until the last minute.
How much have house prices risen in 2026?
Irish house prices are up 7.3% year-on-year outside Dublin and 4.7% in Dublin, according to the CSO’s Residential Property Price Index, with the market forecast to finish the year at around 4% overall growth.
Dublin’s slower growth largely comes down to affordability: prices there are already higher relative to local incomes, which leaves less room for further increases. Bidding activity is still happening nationally, but in Dublin specifically it’s noticeably less intense than in previous periods, buyers are less likely to see homes go for the kind of numbers well above asking price that were common before. There’s still a gap between asking price and agreed price, but it has narrowed.
At current levels, the average residential property in Ireland is selling for around €426,000, roughly eight times the average income of €53,000. That ratio is a significant part of why John doesn’t expect price growth to keep accelerating at its recent pace, though he isn’t forecasting outright falls either.
Key tips
- Dublin’s slower price growth reflects an affordability ceiling, not necessarily a cooling market overall.
- If you’re in a bidding war that feels unusually aggressive, it’s reasonable to walk away and look elsewhere, each situation is case-by-case, but you don’t have to chase every property.
- The price-to-income ratio (currently around 8x average earnings) is a useful gauge of how stretched the market has become.
What's Happening in the Irish Mortgage Market Right Now?
Irish mortgage lending grew across both volume and value in the first half of 2026, driven mainly by first-time buyers, while remortgaging activity is now picking up as fixed-rate deals from the post-COVID rate hikes come up for renewal.
In H1 2026, 21,232 mortgages were drawn down nationally, worth a combined €6.8 billion, per BPFI figures, a 5% increase in volume and a 9.6% increase in value compared to the same period last year. Mortgage approvals for June alone were up 15% year-on-year. First-time buyers remain the main driver of this activity, while movers (people selling one home to buy another) have been comparatively quiet.
Remortgaging is a growing part of the picture too. Borrowers who fixed their rate around three years ago, shortly after the post-COVID rate increases, are now reaching the end of that term and can find real savings by switching. For anyone in that position who’s comfortable with their current repayment amount, John also suggests considering a shorter mortgage term rather than simply matching the old repayment on a new rate.
If you’re one of the borrowers switching this year, it’s worth checking your Mortgage Protection or Life Cover at the same time. Policies taken out with your original mortgage often don’t track a new loan amount or term, and a lot of people are still sitting on cover arranged in a rush years ago that no longer fits. JC Mortgages reviews the loan and the protection together during a switch, so you’re not left sorting one and forgetting the other.
Key tips
- If your fixed rate was set roughly three years ago, check what’s now available before you roll onto your lender’s standard rate.
- If you can comfortably afford your current repayment, ask about shortening your mortgage term when you remortgage rather than just renewing like-for-like.
- First-time buyer demand is currently outpacing mover activity, so expect more competition at entry-level price points.
- Switching lender is a natural point to review your Mortgage Protection, don’t assume your existing cover still matches your new loan.
Will ECB Interest Rates Rise Again in 2026?
The European Central Bank held rates in July. John expects a further 0.25% increase later in 2026, with one more 0.25% rise anticipated in the second half of 2027, this is his professional forecast, not confirmed ECB policy.
Despite global uncertainty, including ongoing volatility linked to Iran, demand in the Irish mortgage market hasn’t slowed. John notes that broader geopolitical instability doesn’t appear to be denting buyer activity so far this year. The rate outlook remains upward in his view, even with July’s pause, and that expectation already shapes his advice around fixing, switching, and timing a purchase.
Rate and price forecasts on this page reflect John Coleman’s professional view based on current market conditions and published ECB guidance. They are not guarantees — mortgage rates and property values can move in either direction, and past trends don’t determine future outcomes.
Key tips
- A held rate in one month doesn’t mean the hiking cycle is over, plan around the trend, not the pause.
- If you’re weighing a fixed vs. variable decision, the expected 2026 and 2027 hikes are worth factoring into your calculations now.
- Sustained demand despite global volatility suggests buyer sentiment in Ireland remains stronger than the wider economic headlines might imply.
Should You Buy Now or Wait for 2027?
Neither rising prices nor further ECB hikes are expected to bring Irish house prices down, in John’s view, so buyers weighing whether to act now or wait should focus on their own readiness rather than trying to time the market.
John doesn’t see house prices falling from here, even with further rate increases likely. If anything, the combination of high demand and an affordability ceiling means growth is more likely to slow than reverse. That’s his read of the market, not a certainty, property values can fall, and no broker can guarantee otherwise. For buyers already planning a purchase for 2027, now is a good time to map out a roadmap, understand borrowing capacity, and get ahead of any scheme eligibility issues, including the Help to Buy pitfalls covered above, well before you’re ready to bid.
Key callouts
- The three things to watch heading into the rest of 2026: Revenue’s Help to Buy enforcement, the pace of house price growth, and the timing of the next ECB hike.
- If you’re planning to buy in 2027, start the groundwork now, roadmap your borrowing capacity and confirm scheme eligibility early.
- Don’t assume a bidding war is unavoidable. In a less “manic” market, walking away from an overheated one is a realistic option.
FAQs
Yes. If Revenue determines an applicant wasn't a genuine first-time buyer, for example because they owned a property abroad, it can recover the relief already paid, plus interest, even after the purchase has completed.
It depends on your circumstances, but with further ECB increases expected later in 2026 and again in 2027, it's worth reviewing your options now rather than waiting, particularly if your current fixed rate is due to expire soon.
Potentially, yes. Many borrowers who fixed shortly after the post-COVID rate increases are now finding real savings by remortgaging as that term ends. Get a comparison done before your rate reverts to your lender's standard variable rate.
Generally, yes - ownership through inheritance still counts as ownership for first-time buyer purposes, regardless of whether you ever lived in the property or actively chose to acquire it. Get this checked before you apply rather than after.
Not usually, provided the higher monthly repayment still fits within the lender's affordability assessment. It's worth running the numbers with an advisor before assuming either way.
Most lenders want two to three years of accounts or tax returns for self-employed or contract income and will typically average recent years rather than relying on your best year. Some lenders are more flexible than others, which is one of the reasons it's worth going through a broker who knows which lenders suit non-PAYE income.
Thinking about your next move, whether that’s buying, remortgaging, or planning for 2027?
John Coleman and the team at JC Mortgages can talk you through where you stand and what to watch out for, including the Help to Buy issues covered in this update. From your mortgage application to your Life Insurance, Mortgage Protection, Income Protection and solicitor access, JC Mortgages handles it all under one digital roof or in-person, so you’re not chasing three different providers for one purchase.
John Coleman is a Qualified Financial Adviser (QFA), mortgage broker and Managing Director of JC Mortgages, regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland (reference C466128), with over 20 years’ experience in the Irish mortgage and property market.
Citations:
- Revenue.ie — Help to Buy (HTB) scheme
- European Central Bank — Key ECB interest rates
- CSO — Residential Property Price Index
- BPFI — Mortgage Drawdowns Report, H1 2026